Handicapping the U.S. Open
We are on the eve of the U.S. Open. The final Slam of the year is about as wide open as one could ever expect. In an attempt to sort out the favourites, but without wishing to bring about gambling addictions among our readership, we shall examine them in the order in which the oddsmakers at Britain's William Hill betting shop place them. First (we toss a coin), let us inspect the women.
Wild women's draw
1. Venus Williams - 28-15 (Now that's exactitude in oddsmaking!)
Upside: Venus already defended one of her Grand Slam titles this year with brio, and it's hard to go against her chances of doing the same in the Big Apple. While she has not gone undefeated as she did last summer, one loss (to Meghann Shaughnessy in Stanford) is not exactly going to send the Venus camp into a state of panic. Martina Navritilova said this month in Toronto that she considers Venus the best player on tour: not so much for her ball-striking, but for her unparalleled court coverage.
Downside: It's hard to find one. One might, however, point to her physical fragility. We noticed at this week's New Haven tournament that she seemed to have an additional body part wrapped in each match, and she had a busy and perhaps tiring weekend in Connecticut.
2. Jennifer Capriati - 11-4
Upside: There is no question that Jennifer, along with Monica Seles, will be the crowd darling at this tournament, and the support will be a plus factor. So will the confidence of being the year's top player so far. Her crisp, up-tempo baseline game should suit the slick hard courts nicely.
Downside: Jennifer appears to be fading a bit. Since the French Open, she has not only failed to win a tournament, but she has fallen into the habit of losing to her most serious rivals at the top (Venus and Serena Williams, Seles and Hénin). During that stretch she is 1-4 against top ten players, the only win coming over Serena at Wimbledon. Has had double-fault miseries this summer.
3. Lindsay Davenport - 6-1
Upside: The 1998 champion can usually be expected to produce the goods on the hard courts of her home country. Davenport has been a semifinalist or better in the last four U.S. Opens. She has also done semis or better at each of her hard court tune-ups this year, improving her showings as she has gone along.
Downside: If Lindsay's ball-striking is not razor-sharp, two bad things tend to happen to her. First, she tends to get easily discouraged and annoyed, a habit that she appeared to have under control the past few years but has resurfaced this season. Second, her relative lack of mobility compared to her chief rivals Williams, Williams, Capriati and Hingis becomes more obvious. Lindsay will have to keep errors to a minimum if she hopes to beat this caliber of player. Finally, Lindsay landed in s
hark-infested waters when the draw was announced: the dangerous Justine Hénin and Serena Williams are in her quarter of the draw.
4. Serena Williams - 13-2
Upside: Serena was starved for a title until two weeks ago, when she won a confidence-boosting crown with a wins over Seles and Capriati. When her serve is working, Serena is probably the toughest woman in tennis to break. Note that Seles, one of the game's best returners of serve, had nary a break point against Serena in their Toronto semifinal.
Downside: Serena has been an underachiever in the majors since her 1999 title at Flushing Meadow. She has not reached a major final since, and has not reached the semifinals in her last four slams. Prone to mental and physical collapses in the late rounds, Serena may be a victim of her notoriously light schedule. Her light schedule certainly does not help her in Grand Slam draws, as her lower ranking wills that she invariably plays a top seed in the quarterfinals.
5. Martina Hingis - 7-1
Upside: She's number one, although it appears that this state of affairs may not last much longer. Her track record at the Open is good, having won the event in 1997 and reaching the semis or better each of the last five years.
Downside: Although the Swiss Miss is a sublime ball-striker, her failure to improve her puffball serve has reached the ridiculous stage. She has not won a major since the 1999 Australian. She has not won a tournament since Dubai, back in February. A stress condition in her foot kept her out of a key tune-up in Canada two weeks ago. Martina is coming off a first-round humiliation at the hands of Virginia Ruano-Pascual at Wimbledon. Quite a few downsides there, I should say?.
6. Monica Seles - 12-1
Upside: These odds probably underestimate Monica's chances. She is one of the in-form women on tour. Since coming back from an injury layoff, she has played four hard-court events and reached the semis in two and the finals of the two others. Along the way she has beaten Hingis (twice), Capriati and Serena Williams. Finally, the unthinkable has happened: she has gotten physically fit!
Downside: As consistently as she has played this summer, she has not won any tournaments. Losses to each of the Williams sisters and to Davenport (twice) in the tune-ups may indicate that she doesn't quite have what it takes to go all the way. Burnout is a concern: she played four weeks in a row after her return this year, and appeared utterly exhausted at the end of the run in Toronto. Must play a very high-risk game to mask her slowness afoot.
The others, in order (Clijsters, Hénin, Dokic, Mauresmo)
Belgians Clijsters and Hénin have broken through to reach major finals this year, and either will be a handful for anyone this fortnight. Neither Dokic nor Mauresmo have delivered the goods this summer, but could surprise if they find a hot run of form.
Our pick: Venus Williams over Davenport in the final.
Men's madness on the Meadow
1. Andre Agassi - 9-2
Upside: Agassi has won 30 hard court matches this season: no-one has done better. He also won the other hard court Slam in Australia. Andre won one of the summer tune-ups by beating Kuerten and then Sampras in Los Angeles.
Downside: Andre has exhibited wildly inconsistent form since March. At 31 he is in great shape, but he is not the proverbial spring chicken. Possible baby and marriage distractions. His draw is brutal, with Rafter, Sampras and Federer all in his quarter, not to mention his nemesis Francisco "Pato" Clavet as a possible second-round adversary. Losses in his last three tournaments to Ivan Ljubicic, Gastón Gaudio and Sjeng Schalken will not exactly send him into the Open in a red hot state.
2. Gustavo Kuerten - 5-1
Upside: Guga is having a splendid summer, with two titles and a final to his credit. Winning the Cincinnati tournament this year gave him his first Masters Series hard court title. The draw worked out well for him, with most of the serious title threats in the opposite half.
Downside: The courts in New York are very fast: more like Montreal (where Guga lost in the third round to Roddick) than Cincinnati. The faster they are, the worse they are for the Brazilian. Kuerten also came into New York with high hopes last year, but lost his first match. A sore rib cage might be an injury concern.
3. Patrick Rafter - 6-1
Upside: Unquestionably the in-form player of the moment. Counting Wimbledon, the popular Aussie has reached four finals in four tournaments, finally winning the last one in Indianapolis. Pat knows what it takes to win at Flushing Meadow, having won here twice. Extra motivation knowing this could be his last U.S. Open.
Downside: Like Seles, Rafter might have some burnout from playing four straight weeks. Tendinitis in his right arm has been a constant issue this year, and forced him to withdraw from the Long Island event last week. The draw has also dropped Rafter in the same Quarter of Death as Agassi.
4. Pete Sampras - 9-1
Upside: Knows what it's like to win here, although he has to cast his memory back to 1996 to bring back the recollection. Played well here last year, with a runner-up performance. Pete had some decent tune-up performances, including the final at Los Angeles and the semis (as of this writing) on Long Island.
Downside: Has not won a non-Wimbledon major in five years, and has not won any tournament in over a year. Appears increasingly lethargic and quick to give up the fight in big matches. Pete's ranking has slid to the double-digits, which would have been unthinkable not long ago. Also in the Quarter of Death!
5. Lleyton Hewitt - 10-1
Upside: Lleyton is still a youngster moving up. His best Slam to date was here last year, when he reached the semis. He does not object to slick courts, as his two grass-court titles this year indicate. Being a top-four seed this year helps him draw-wise.
Downside: Hewitt has not had a glittering summer on the hard courts, losing the semis easily to Rafter in Cincinnati, and bowing out early to Moroccans Arazi and El Aynaoui in his other two appearances. With the exception of last year's U.S. Open, Lleyton has been a Grand Slam underachiever in his young career.
6. Andy Roddick - 12-1
Upside: Still a tender 18 years of age, Roddick has already established himself as a player to reckon with, and is an outsider pick for the big prize. Three titles this year, along wins over marquee names such as Sampras and Kuerten, show that the kid will not be intimidated by anyone. Andy's massive serve and forehand should be effective on the fast surface used at the Open.
Downside: The hype surrounding Roddick will be humungous, and maybe too much to deal with. His excessively energetic and sometimes awkward on-court movement can lead to injuries and cramping, as we saw at the French Open and Cincinnati this year.
The others, in order (Safin, Ferrero, Henman, Kafelnikov)
Defending champion Safin will have to rescue his brain from the holiday it's been taking this year, but he has the kind of draw that might enable him to find last year's form. Ferrero might be overmatched by the big hitters, but his foot speed and aggressive counter-punching can be a worry for anyone. Henman is supremely skilled and should like the fast courts, but has never lived up to expectations at the U.S. Open: perhaps a new American coach (Larry Stefanki) will help? Kafelnikov is a former finali
st here, but has been sub-par this year, and is again in the same quarter of the draw as his Grand Slam nemesis Kuerten.
Our pick: Rafter over Kuerten in the final.
Enjoy the Open!