On the eve of the Australian Open, we pause to take a look at the contenders and foolishly risk picking winners.
Men?s draw
The men?s competition appears to be wide open, with no one player dominating the tour. Here are the principal contenders:
Andre Agassi (4th seed)
- The American superstar continues to cheat Father Time, and has won the last three Aussie Opens he has played (Agassi did not play in 2002 because of injury). Can he turn the trick again at age 33?
While we expect Agassi to reach at least the later rounds, his draw is not the easiest and he could face some lengthy matches that might sap his precious energy. We are thinking of possible confrontations with Spadea (third round), Srichaphan/Kuerten/Ljubicic (fourth round), and Grosjean/Schuettler/Escudé/Robredo (quarterfinal). His key to a repeat will be his ability to negotiate these matches with minimal time spent on court.
Lleyton Hewitt (15th seed)
- The former number one has never shone brightly at his national classic, but this could be his year. The feisty Aussie won the Sydney tune-up, and is 8-0 this year in singles matches. But two of his wins came when his opponents retired because of injury or illness. The highest-ranked opponent Hewitt was able to defeat in a completed match was #31 Clément, and that was in three arduous sets in Sydney. We are a bit skeptical about Hewitt, especially since he may have to go through two tough competito
rs in the Group of Death? Read on!
Roger Federer (2nd seed) and David Nalbandian (8th seed)
- Federer and Nalbandian are two dangerous customers who are, like Hewitt, in the deadly bottom quarter of the draw. Federer is a bit of a question mark, despite having ended 2003 brilliantly at the Masters Cup. Since then he strangely fired his successful coach Peter Lundgren, and in his exhibition tune-ups this year has lost in straight sets to both Agassi and Ferrero. If anyone can turn it on in a flash it is the brilliant Federer, but this is a dangerous game to play.
As for Nalbandian, recall that at the U.S. Open he almost knocked off eventual champion Andy Roddick despite an injured wrist that dogged him for the remainder of the season. David?s peers are full of praise for his game, and Nalbandian looked impressive in claiming the Kooyong exhibition title, defeating Agassi and Roddick en route. The wrist appears fine after the off-season break.
Andy Roddick (1st seed)
- So what about the U.S. Open champion and world number one? Roddick will certainly be tough to beat Down Under with his stifling power game. But the top seed has not claimed a title since his U.S. Open run. Andy tuned up for the AO unimpressively, in Dubai (second round loss to Bjorkman) and the Kooyong exhibition
(defeating Ginepri and losing to Nalbandian). The good news is that notwithstanding a potentially scary first rounder against Fernando Gonzalez, Roddick
appears to have a good first-week draw. The most obvious
threat in his quarter, Chennai champion and Sydney
finalist Carlos Moya, is questionable because of an
ankle injury sustained in Sydney. But is Roddick showing the form of a champion these days?
Our pick - We?ll go out on a limb and take Nalbandian.
Women?s draw
The number of serious contenders in the women?s competition appears to us to be restricted compared to the men?s draw. This is largely because of withdrawals (notably those of Serena Williams and Jennifer Capriati) and injury worries (notably those of Kim Clijsters and Lindsay Davenport). Here are the principal contenders:
Justine Henin-Hardenne (1st seed)
- For the first time the Belgian dynamo is entering a Slam as the firm favourite. For this reason alone the Australian Open will be
uncharted waters for Henin-Hardenne. Still, Justine appears well-placed to add the Australian Open championship
to her CV after a title in Sydney last week.
Amélie Mauresmo has the talent to worry Henin in a possible semifinal, but the Frenchwoman is a notorious Grand Slam underachiever.
Kim Clijsters (2nd seed)
- Clijsters has been close to a Grand Slam title on many occasions but has been so far unable to seize the moment. The Belgian saw her chances for a title in Melbourne dip when she suffered a deep ankle bruise at the Hopman Cup two weeks ago. Her chances at the AO depend on the state of her ankle? and her brain!
Venus Williams (3rd seed)
- The elder Williams sister, ranked 11th by the WTA, was generously promoted to third seed. Venus has been absent from the tour since last July, when she lost the Wimbledon final to her sister. Since then, her match play has been confined to exhibition wins over Chanda Rubin and Maria Sharapova at an exhibition event in Hong Kong two weeks ago. But Venus has always played a light schedule. And recall that this is a Grand Slam women?s draw, where the first week tends to be breezy for the top seeds. An a
dditional bonus for Williams is that the most dangerous competitor in Venus?s half of the draw, Clijsters, may be gimpy. Venus is a good bet for the final at the very least.
Our pick
- Justine Henin-Hardenne? although we would not be overly surprised to see Venus Williams holding the trophy either.
Enjoy the action from Melbourne!