Once again,
we take time in this week's column to analyze the US Open draw. A
gentle warning to readers to not bet the ranch on these predictions
in any tennis contests!
Men's Draw
Top Half - Top
Quarter
Champs:
The match that jumps out in this section is between the defending champion,
Lleyton Hewitt and American James Blake. The match could
be a third round repeat of last year's US Open which is more remembered for
allegations that Hewitt made racially-charged comments towards Blake and
a line judge. Blake has improved over the past year and just captured
his first ATP title this month in Washington. On the other hand, Hewitt's
summer has not been the stellar with losses to Mantilla, Moya, and Rusedski
as well as a mental meltdown over media obligations.
Chumps: Don't
expect #8 seed and French Open champion, Albert Costa, to live up
to his seeding. The newlywed has posted a dismally slim 1-2 summer
hardcourt record. It would be no surprise if Magnus Norman, still desperately
searching for match wins since coming back on the tour after surgery, knocks
the Spaniard out in the first round.
Top Half - Bottom
Quarter
Champs: The
two players that stand out in this section of the draw are Carlos Moya
and Andre Agassi. Moya captured the TMS-Cincinnati with a
win over Hewitt in the finals and seems to be regaining the form that put
him ever-so-briefly on top of the rankings. Agassi has been a
bit of an enigma of late winning in Los Angeles but falling to Hewitt and
more surprisingly to James Blake since then. But it seems like one
can never count out the A-Train in a Grand Slam, especially the US Open.
Chumps: After
showing so much promise early this year (especially after winning in TMS-Miami),
Roger Federer once again is settling into mediocrity. The
Swiss has yet to win a hardcourt match this summer with losses to Canas,
Ljubicic, and Massu. Likewise, one can only wonder how Yevgeny Kafelnikov
is still considered the #4 player in the world (though that might not last
long once his semifinal showing at the US Open falls off the comptuer rankings).
Kafelnikov has had an equally unimpressive hardcourt season with early
round losses to Canas, Schuettler, and Ancic.
Bottom Half -
Top Quarter
Champs: A
tough section to pick a winner from, with the list of seeded players questionable
for a laundry list of reasons. So let's go with Greg Rusedski
who caught a break with the withdrawals of Canas and Johannson to get seeded
at #33. The Brit lost some tight matches this summer before taking out
Hewitt and Haas to capture the Indianapolis title. Let's not forget
that Flushing Meadows was the scene of Rusedski's best Grand Slam showing
- an appearance in the 1997 final.
Chumps: The
walking wounded - both physically and mentally: #3 Tommy Haas
(arm and elbow pain, family health concerns), #5 Tim Henman (sore
shoulder), #11 Andy Roddick (The great white hype? Should he
be losing matches to the likes of Gambill, Canas, Gonzalez, Meligeni), #17
Pete Sampras (Sampras himself is probably one of the few who think
he is a contender this year), #29 Thomas Enqvist (injury withdrawal
this week in Long Island).
Bottom Half -
Bottom Quarter
Champs: Not
unlike the other section of this half, there appears to be no clear cut choices.
Let's go with a couple of lower seeds, Fernando Gonzalez and
Rainer Schuettler for some surprises. Gonzalez had a heady
showing in Cincinnati with wins over Clement, Henman, Krajicek, and Roddick
before losing to Hewitt in three sets in the semifinals while Schuettler posted
wins over Kafelnikov, Malisse, and Philippoussis.
Chumps: Not
unlike Federer, where has happened to Marat Safin of late? The
#2 seed is 3-2 this summer and has a couple of interesting opening rounds
(Kiefer in the 1st and potentially Kuerten in the 2nd).
Women's Draw
Top Half - Top
Quarter
Champs: A
bunch of interesting names in this section. Corina Morariu has
the unfortunate task of taking on Serena Williams in the first round. Nevertheless,
even if the Morariu gets double-bageled the true victory is that she is
back on the tennis courts after battling leukemia. Dinara Safina
will be looking for some of the success that he brother Marat has
had on Athur Ashe stadium. Safina won he first title earlier this year
and is now ranked in the Top 100. Daniela Hantuchova is the new "it"
girl on the Tour and it would not be surprising to see the Czech reach the
quarterfinals (if she could get past Justine Henin in the fourth round).
Chumps: My
potentially controversial choice here is Serena Williams. Yes, the
same Serena Williams who is #1 ranked player and the current French and Wimbledon
champion. Somewhat cynically, Serena's loss to Chanda Rubin in Los
Angeles and subsequent withdrawal from the AT&T Cup in Canada is making
me believe that it is time for "big sis" to take home another major trophy.
That said, I still would rate the chances of a third all-Williams Grand
Slam final pretty high.
Top Half - Bottom
Quarter
Champs:
Lindsay Davenport has had a remarkable showing since coming back on
the Tour after an eight-month layoff from knee surgery. While Davenport
may still have some problems with her higher-ranked countrywomen at this year's
Open, her path to the later rounds is remarkably free from major challenges.
Chumps:
Arantxa Sanchez Vicario's visit will probably be a short one as she
is seeded to face Davenport in the third round. There has little to
buzz about the Barcelona Bumblebee of late with two first round losses this
summer to Granville and Tulyaganova. A more high profile choice
here is Jelena Dokic. Dokic has had an incredible year, but
having played in a staggering 20+ tournaments just this year the physical
and mental wear-and-tear is showing for the fifth seed.
Bottom Half -
Top Quarter
Champs: The
two faces that I like here are Amelie Mauresmo and Eleni Daniilidou
. Not unlike the Mary Pierce of the past, Mauresmo is a massive collection
of untapped talent. Mauresmo captured a hard-court title in Canada
last month and should be a factor in this section of the draw in the later
rounds. Daniilidou has posted wins over the likes of Mauresmo, Henin,
Hantuchova, and Dementieva this year and stretched Capriati to three sets
at the Australian Open and Wimbledon.
Chumps: The
top seeds in this section are a bit hard to figure out. Kim Clijsters
started the summer off well in Stanford and San Diego but has since lost
to Srebotnik and Schett. Likewise, Jennifer Capriati does not
seem to be the dominant force at the moment with losses to Dokic, Sugiyama,
and Mauresmo. Capriati clearly likes the Slams (three of her past four
tournament titles have come at the Slams) so there is not too much doubt
that the Capriati will be playing in the second week.
Bottom Half -
Bottom Quarter
Champs: As
they say, it is deja vu all over again. Venus Williams has simply
dominated the summer hardcourt circuit for the past two years and she is
doing so again this year. There seems to be little standing in the
way of the now #2-ranked player, even her younger sister at this stage. Also,
let's welcome back Martina Hingis to the tennis courts and Chanda
Rubin to seedings. S
Chumps: With
only two matches under her belt this summer and a re-occurence of a foot
injury, it appears that Monica Seles will have a difficult time at
this year's Open. However, seeded to meet the recently-hobbled Hingis
in the fourth round who is to say which former #1 and US Open champ will
prevail.
You may read previous Mr. Ed columns by clicking
here.