One of the interesting aspects of the contest is seeing how our gaggle of experts handicap the field. So here are some observations about our men's picks. Some of the numbers might not add up, but you get the general idea. (Click here to see the analysis of the women's picks).

There are 72 contestants in this contest.

Fancied to win the championship (number of championship picks in parentheses): Federer of course! Roddick is the second choice, well behind Roger.

• Federer (64)
• Roddick (5)
• Nadal (2)
• Blake (1)

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Our analysis of the chances of the top seeds
 

(1) Roger Federer

Roger lost a match last week! It was to Roddick at the Kooyong exhibition. But he also lost at Kooyong last year (to Haas), and it didn't stop him from sweeping to the AO title. We see few obstacles for Roger in his title defence.

- Roger will lose in the final:
   1 (to Nadal)
- Roger will lose in the semifinal:
   5 (to Roddick)
- Roger will lose in the fourth round:
   2 (to Djokovic)

(2) Rafael Nadal

Rafa has been strangely ineffective since his surprise run to the Wibmledon final, and has not won a title since his Roland Garros championship. On top of that he has concerns with a groin injury that knocked him out of the Sydney. The Mallorcan does not have an easy draw, with the most obvious danger men in his quarter being Sydney champion Blake (who has a 3-0 record against Nadal) and the fast-rising Doha runner-up Murray. Our consensus is that the Spaniard will not reach the semis, losing to Murray... although many feel the ultimate beneficiary will be Blake, who is a common pick to reach the final.

- Rafael will lose in the final:
   7 (to Federer)
- Rafael will lose in the semifinal:
   2 (to Berdych)
   2 (to Davydenko)
- Rafael will lose in the quarterfinal:
   16 (to Blake)
   1 (to Gonzalez)
- Rafael will lose in the fourth round:
   37 (to Murray)
   1 (to Nieminen)
- Rafael will lose before the fourth round:
   1 (prefer Benneteau)
   1 (prefer Vliegen)
   1 (prefer Wawrinka)

(3) Nikolay Davydenko

Like Nadal, the solid Davydenko withdrew from Sydney with an injury problem that may or may not be serious -- a foot problem in this case. A quarterfinalist here the last two years, if healthy Davydenko appears to have the draw that might allow him to go at least that far again. He may have to be wary of Chennai champion Malisse, a potential third round opponent who appears in good form. Aside from Davydenko himself, Nalbandian and Berdych are names to watch in this quarter.

- Nikolay will lose in the final:
   3 (to Federer)
   1 (to Roddick)
- Nikolay will lose in the semifinal:
   7 (to Blake)
   3 (to Murray)
   3 (to Nadal)
- Nikolay will lose in the quarterfinal:
   9 (to Nalbandian)
   3 (to Haas)
- Nikolay will lose in the fourth round:
   10 (to Berdych)
   3 (to Tursunov)
- Nikolay will lose before the fourth round:
   27 (prefer Malisse)
   1 (prefer Clement)
   1 (prefer Santoro)

(4) Ivan Ljubicic

The big-serving Croatian tuned up splendidly with a title in Doha, and may benefit if the courts play faster this year. Ivan's best previous AO showing was a quarterfinal last year. The biggest threat in his quarter of the draw may well be US Open champion Roddick, who looks to be on song judging from his Kooyong title last week. Most of us feel that Roddick will take out Ljubicic. Earlier dangers could come in the form of Auckland champion Ferrer in the fourth round, and Fish, who could be a testy first found opponent. None of us picked Ivan to reach the final.

- Ivan will lose in the semifinal:
   8 (to Federer)
- Ivan will lose in the quarterfinal:
   39 (to Roddick)
   5 (to Safin)
   1 (to Ancic)
   1 (to Joachim Johansson)
- Ivan will lose in the fourth round:
   8 (to Ferrer)
   4 (to Stepanek)
   1 (to Thomas Johansson)
- Ivan will lose before the fourth round:
   5 (prefer Fish)

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The LOW SEEDS WE LOVE!

Some of the lower seeds will be dangerous. We like the fourth round chances of:

• Richard Gasquet (18th seed, 36 votes): Coming off a semifinal appearance in Sydney, Gasquet could be poised to repeat his fourth round USO showing. It might not be easy, since defending runner-up Baghatis in the high seed in this bracket.
• Lleyton Hewitt (19th seed, 34 votes): Lleyton's fortunes have certainly taken a downward turn since he reached the finals here two years ago. The fourth round could be doable for the Aussie, since the high seed in this group, Gonzalez, has not reached the AO R16 since 2002.

Here are the lower-seeded players selected, in alphabetical order. The seed is given, with the number of fourth-round votes in parentheses:

• Acasuso-27 (2)
• Ferrero -24 (6)
• Gasquet-18 (36)
• Grosjean-28 (8)
• Hewitt-19 (34)
• Hrbaty-22 (8)
• Malisse-29 (25)
• Nieminen-17 (4)
• Safin-26 (13)
• Soderling-23 (21)
• Stepanek-20 (20)
• Tursunov-21 (19)

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The FABULOUS FLOATERS!

Even with 32 seeds, we always have our eye on unseeded players coming out of the pack. Our most often-picked floater is:

• Joachim Johansson (15 votes): Joachim narrowly edges out the other Johansson as top floater pick. "Pim-Pim", who was a semifinalist in Adelaide two weeks ago, is in the bracket of another big server, Ancic.

Here are the unseeded players selected, in alphabetical order, with number of fourth-round votes in parentheses:

• Andreev (1)
• Becker (1)
• Benneteau (1)
• Chela (3)
• Clement (1)
• Del Potro (4)
• Fish (5)
• Goldstein (1)
• Guccione (7)
• Hajek (1)
• Johansson, Joachim (15)
• Johansson, Thomas (12)
• Karlovic (6)
• Korolev (1)
• Massu (1)
• Melzer (3)
• Mirnyi (5)
• Monfils (2)
• Moya (4)
• Qualifier in Djokovic's bracket (1) - this would be Brian Wilson
• Qualifier in Haas's bracket (2) - this would be Bobby Reynolds, Marin Cilic or Ilia Bozoljac
• Querrey (2)
• Ramirez Hidalgo (1)
• Rochus, Olivier (6)
• Santoro (1)
• Seppi (1)
• Serra (2)
• Spadea (1)
• Tipsarevic (1)
• Vliegen (1)
• Wawrinka (1)

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E-mail Ed Toombs

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