2007 Australian Open Contest
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2007 Australian Open Contest
Women's Draw Analysis


One of the interesting aspects of the contest is seeing how our gaggle of experts handicap the field. So here are some observations about our women's picks. Some of the numbers might not add up, but you get the general idea. (Click here to see the analysis of the men's picks).

There are 72 contestants in this contest.

Fancied to win the championship (number of championship picks in parentheses): Clijsters is narrowly our favourite over top seed Sharapova. Defending champ Mauresmo is our top pick out of the bottom half of the draw.

  • Clijsters (30)
  • Sharapova (25)
  • Mauresmo (11)
  • Hingis (2)
  • Jankovic (2)
  • Kuznetsova (1)
  • Safina (1)



 

Our analysis of the chances of the top seeds
 

(1) Maria Sharapova

The US Open champion has come close with semifinal showings the past two years and could be poised to pull off her second straight major. The absence of Henin-Hardenne gives Maria the top seed. Her tune-up was acceptable (exhbition final in Hong Kong where she lost to Clijsters) and she appears to have few worries in her draw until a possible rematch with Kim in the semis.

- Maria will lose in the final:
   3 (to Mauresmo)
   1 (to Kuznetsova)
- Maria will lose in the semifinal:
   38 (to Clijsters)
   2 (to Hingis)
   1 (to Safina)
- Maria will lose in the quarterfinal:
   1 (to Schnyder)
- Maria will lose in the fourth round:
   1 (to Ivanovic)


(2) Amelie Mauresmo

Our defending champion made her Slam breakthrough here last year and is a contender to repeat the feat this fortnight. Mauresmo had a shaky tuneup (lost badly to Jankovic in Sydney), but this was also the case last year and look what happened. The biggest threat in Amelie's quarter appears to be Vaidisova in the quarters, with no noticeable earlier obstacles. We think Amelie should be good for the semis and perhaps more.

- Amelie will lose in the final:
   11 (to Clijsters)
   11 (to Sharapova)
   1 (to Hingis)
- Amelie will lose in the semifinal:
   13 (to Jankovic)
   5 (to Kuznetsova)
   1 (to Golovin)
   1 (to Williams)
- Amelie will lose in the quarterfinal:
   15 (to Vaidisova)
   1 (to Dementieva)
- Amelie will lose before the fourth round:
   1 (prefer Zheng)


(3) Svetlana Kuznetsova

The jury is out on Svetlana. Not only is her health in question (respiratory infection), she probably landed the toughest draw of any of the four seeds. If Sveta gets past dangerous prospective fourth round opponents Golovin or Peer, the rampant Gold Coast champ and Sydney runner-up Jankovic, who took out Kuznetsova at the USO last year, could lurk. We think quite highly of Janovic this year. The consensus is that either a R16 or quarterfinal elimination will keep the Russian out of the semis.

- Svetlana will lose in the final:
   3 (to Clijsters)
   3 (to Sharapova)
- Svetlana will lose in the semifinal:
   8 (to Mauresmo)
   3 (to Vaidisova)
- Svetlana will lose in the quarterfinal:
   28 (to Jankovic)
   2 (to Petrova)
   2 (to Williams)
- Svetlana will lose in the fourth round:
   9 (to Golovin)
   6 (to Peer)
- Svetlana will lose before the fourth round:
   5 (prefer Kirilenko)
   1 (prefer Likhovtseva)
   1 (prefer Tulyaganova)


(4) Kim Clijsters

Clijsters, who says she is in her final season, is the in-form player at the moment having won both the Hong Kong exhibition and the Sydney tournament, beating the likes of Sharapova, Jankovic and Schnyder en route. She is considered the favourite by our ace contestants. None of us see the Belgian losing in the first four rounds. Kim's first danger could come from Hingis in the quarters, but most see her passing that test. A possible semifinal showdown with Sharapova would be a key match in the contest, since the winner would be our favourite to go home with the title.

- Kim will lose in the final:
   8 (to Mauresmo)
   2 (to Jankovic)
- Kim will lose in the semifinal:
   23 (to Sharapova)
- Kim will lose in the quarterfinal:
   8 (to Hingis)
   1 (to Safina)



The LOW SEEDS WE LOVE!

Some of the lower seeds will be dangerous. We like the fourth round chances of:

  • Tatiana Golovin (20th seed, 31 votes): The French teen was a quarterfinalist at last year's US Open, and we like her chances of having a good run in Peer's bracket.
  • Samantha Stosur (24th seed, 23 votes): Sam will have the crowd support and her big serve as weapons as she seeks to advance to the round of sixteen for the second year running. Her group is headed by inexperienced Chakvetadze.
Here are the lower-seeded players selected, in alphabetical order. The seed is given, with the number of fourth-round votes in parentheses:
  • Bartoli-18 (2)
  • Golovin-20 (31)
  • Groenefeld-17 (12)
  • Kirilenko-26 (5)
  • Li-19 (21)
  • Medina Garrigues-25 (2)
  • Pennetta-31 (3)
  • Srebotnik-21 (4)
  • Stosur-24 (23)
  • Sugiyama-23 (17)
  • Zheng-31 (1)
  • Zvonareva-22 (16)



The FABULOUS FLOATERS!

Even with 32 seeds, we always have our eye on unseeded players coming out of the pack. Our most often-picked floater is:

  • Serena Williams (25 votes): Short on match play but always dangerous, Serena might still be worth a look as a fourth-round participant out of Petrova's bracket. Petrova's form is questionable as she withdrew from her only match this season with a thigh problem.
Here are the unseeded players selected, in alphabetical order, with number of fourth-round votes in parentheses:
  • Arvidsson (4)
  • Benesova (1)
  • Bremond (2)
  • Craybas (2)
  • Flipkens (1)
  • Harkleroad (1)
  • King (2)
  • Kostanic (1)
  • Krajicek (4)
  • Likhovtseva (1)
  • Loit (2)
  • Mirza (1)
  • Molik (15)
  • Peng (6)
  • Radwanska (2)
  • Rezai (11)
  • Ruano Pascual (1)
  • Safarova (9)
  • Smashnova (2)
  • Tulyaganova (1)
  • Vesnina (6)
  • Williams (25)
  • Wozniak (1)
  • Yakimova (1)


E-mail Ed Toombs

Check out the analysis of the men's picks!
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